Will YR4 Hit the Moon? We Won’t Know Until 2028

These images of asteroid 2024 YR4 were captured by the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025. Credit: NASA/JWST

Earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered and found to have a trajectory through the Earth/Moon system in 2032. The world’s telescopes focused on the potential threat and downgraded the chance to negligible for the Earth…but it still has a non-zero chance of hitting the Moon. As the asteroid became too dim to continue observing, its Moon impact chance stood at 4%. When will we update this number? Not until it does another close flyby in 2028.

Universe Today
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