The Long Night: Modeling the Climate of Westeros. (arXiv:1903.12195v1 [physics.pop-ph])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Paradise_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Adiv Paradise</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Obertas_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Alysa Obertas</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+OGrady_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Anna O'Grady</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Young_M/0/1/0/all/0/1">Matthew Young</a>
Many previous authors have attempted to find explanations for Westeros’s
climate, characterized by a generally moderate, Earth-like climate punctuated
by extremely long and cold winters, separated by thousands of years. One
explanation that has been proposed is that the planet orbits in a Sitnikov
configuration, where two equal-mass stars (or a star and a black hole) orbit
each other on slightly eccentric orbits, and the planet moves along a line
through the barycenter perpendicular to the primaries’ orbital plane
(Freistetter & Gr”utzbauch 2018). We modify an intermediate-complexity GCM to
include the effects of such an orbit and integrate it for thousands of years to
determine whether such an orbit can a) be habitable and b) explain the climatic
variations observed by the inhabitants of Westeros, in both double-star and
star-black hole configurations. While configurations with low primary
eccentricity and initial conditions that permit only small excursions from the
ecliptic plane are habitable, these orbits are too stable to explain Westerosi
climate. We find that while orbits with more bounded chaos are able to produce
rare anomalously long and cold winters similar to Westeros’s Long Night, huge
variations in incident stellar flux on normal orbital timescales should render
these planets uninhabitable. We note that the presence of an orbital
megastructure, either around the planet or the barycenter, could block some of
the sunlight during crossings of the primaries’ orbital plane and preserve
Westeros’s habitability. While we find that bounded chaotic Sitnikov orbits are
a viable explanation for Westeros’s Long Night, we propose that chaotic
variations of the planet’s axial tilt or semimajor axis, potentially due to
torques from nearby planets or stars, may be a more realistic explanation than
Sitnikov orbits.
Many previous authors have attempted to find explanations for Westeros’s
climate, characterized by a generally moderate, Earth-like climate punctuated
by extremely long and cold winters, separated by thousands of years. One
explanation that has been proposed is that the planet orbits in a Sitnikov
configuration, where two equal-mass stars (or a star and a black hole) orbit
each other on slightly eccentric orbits, and the planet moves along a line
through the barycenter perpendicular to the primaries’ orbital plane
(Freistetter & Gr”utzbauch 2018). We modify an intermediate-complexity GCM to
include the effects of such an orbit and integrate it for thousands of years to
determine whether such an orbit can a) be habitable and b) explain the climatic
variations observed by the inhabitants of Westeros, in both double-star and
star-black hole configurations. While configurations with low primary
eccentricity and initial conditions that permit only small excursions from the
ecliptic plane are habitable, these orbits are too stable to explain Westerosi
climate. We find that while orbits with more bounded chaos are able to produce
rare anomalously long and cold winters similar to Westeros’s Long Night, huge
variations in incident stellar flux on normal orbital timescales should render
these planets uninhabitable. We note that the presence of an orbital
megastructure, either around the planet or the barycenter, could block some of
the sunlight during crossings of the primaries’ orbital plane and preserve
Westeros’s habitability. While we find that bounded chaotic Sitnikov orbits are
a viable explanation for Westeros’s Long Night, we propose that chaotic
variations of the planet’s axial tilt or semimajor axis, potentially due to
torques from nearby planets or stars, may be a more realistic explanation than
Sitnikov orbits.
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