Probing delayed-end reionization histories with the 21cm-LAE cross-power spectrum. (arXiv:1911.11783v1 [astro-ph.CO])

Probing delayed-end reionization histories with the 21cm-LAE cross-power spectrum. (arXiv:1911.11783v1 [astro-ph.CO])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Weinberger_L/0/1/0/all/0/1">Lewis H. Weinberger</a> (IoA, Cambridge), <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Kulkarni_G/0/1/0/all/0/1">Girish Kulkarni</a> (TIFR, Mumbai), <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Haehnelt_M/0/1/0/all/0/1">Martin G. Haehnelt</a> (IoA, Cambridge)

We model the 21-cm signal and LAE population evolution during the epoch of
reionization in order to predict the 21cm-LAE cross-power spectrum. We employ
high-dynamic-range simulations of the IGM to create models that are consistent
with constraints from the CMB, Lyman-$alpha$ forest and LAE population
statistics. Using these models we consider the evolution of the cross-power
spectrum for a selection of realistic reionization histories and predict the
sensitivity of current and upcoming surveys to measuring this signal. We find
that the imprint of a delayed-end to reionization can be observed by future
surveys, and that strong constraints can be placed on the progression of
reionization as late as $z=5.7$ using a Subaru-SKA survey. We make predictions
for the signal-to-noise ratios achievable by combinations of Subaru/PFS with
the MWA, LOFAR, HERA and SKA interferometers. We find that a Subaru-SKA survey
could measure the cross-power spectrum for a late reionization at $z=6.6$ with
a total signal-to-noise greater than 5, making it possible to constrain both
the timing and bubble size at the end of reionization. Furthermore, we find
that expanding the current Subaru/PFS survey area and depth by a factor of
three would double the total signal-to-noise.

We model the 21-cm signal and LAE population evolution during the epoch of
reionization in order to predict the 21cm-LAE cross-power spectrum. We employ
high-dynamic-range simulations of the IGM to create models that are consistent
with constraints from the CMB, Lyman-$alpha$ forest and LAE population
statistics. Using these models we consider the evolution of the cross-power
spectrum for a selection of realistic reionization histories and predict the
sensitivity of current and upcoming surveys to measuring this signal. We find
that the imprint of a delayed-end to reionization can be observed by future
surveys, and that strong constraints can be placed on the progression of
reionization as late as $z=5.7$ using a Subaru-SKA survey. We make predictions
for the signal-to-noise ratios achievable by combinations of Subaru/PFS with
the MWA, LOFAR, HERA and SKA interferometers. We find that a Subaru-SKA survey
could measure the cross-power spectrum for a late reionization at $z=6.6$ with
a total signal-to-noise greater than 5, making it possible to constrain both
the timing and bubble size at the end of reionization. Furthermore, we find
that expanding the current Subaru/PFS survey area and depth by a factor of
three would double the total signal-to-noise.

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