HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars

HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars
William Sheu, Tommaso Treu, Adriano Agnello, Timo Anguita, Simon Birrer, Daniel Gilman, Xiaosheng Huang, Richard G. McMahon, Nicholas D. Morgan, Veronica Motta, Anna Nierenberg, Kenneth C. Wong, Ioana Zelko
arXiv:2608.07470v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The Hubble-Lema^{i}tre tension remains a significant challenge in modern cosmology, exhibiting a discrepancy between early-Universe cosmic microwave background measurements and local distance ladder observations. Strong lensing time-delay cosmography provides an independent, geometric probe of $H_0$ that can help resolve this discrepancy. Although hundreds of lensed quasars have been discovered, only a handful have been analyzed due to the resource-intensive follow-up required to measure precise time delays and break degeneracies. We present uniform gravitational lens modeling of 17 recently discovered lensed quasar systems (2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged) to identify and prioritize the most promising candidates for future cosmological study. Using high-resolution near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/IR F160W imaging (PID: 17916, PI: T. Treu), we perform uniform pipeline modeling with Lenstronomy. We constrain the mass and light profiles of the deflector galaxies, and assuming a fiducial cosmology, we predict their Fermat potential differences and expected time delays. Our pipeline successfully yields models and time-delay predictions for all 17 systems. Assuming ideal monitoring conditions, we estimate the total contribution from time-delay and Fermat potential modeling errors to the time-delay distance. From this, we classify the systems by estimated time-delay distance uncertainties: six “excellent” ($leq 3%$), five “good” ($3%$-$7%$), three “suitable” ($7%$-$12%$), and three “impractical” ($>12%$). We recommend prioritizing follow-up campaigns on the 11 “excellent” and “good” systems, which have the potential to deliver high-precision, independent constraints on $H_0$ to help resolve the Hubble-Lema^{i}tre tension.arXiv:2608.07470v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The Hubble-Lema^{i}tre tension remains a significant challenge in modern cosmology, exhibiting a discrepancy between early-Universe cosmic microwave background measurements and local distance ladder observations. Strong lensing time-delay cosmography provides an independent, geometric probe of $H_0$ that can help resolve this discrepancy. Although hundreds of lensed quasars have been discovered, only a handful have been analyzed due to the resource-intensive follow-up required to measure precise time delays and break degeneracies. We present uniform gravitational lens modeling of 17 recently discovered lensed quasar systems (2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged) to identify and prioritize the most promising candidates for future cosmological study. Using high-resolution near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/IR F160W imaging (PID: 17916, PI: T. Treu), we perform uniform pipeline modeling with Lenstronomy. We constrain the mass and light profiles of the deflector galaxies, and assuming a fiducial cosmology, we predict their Fermat potential differences and expected time delays. Our pipeline successfully yields models and time-delay predictions for all 17 systems. Assuming ideal monitoring conditions, we estimate the total contribution from time-delay and Fermat potential modeling errors to the time-delay distance. From this, we classify the systems by estimated time-delay distance uncertainties: six “excellent” ($leq 3%$), five “good” ($3%$-$7%$), three “suitable” ($7%$-$12%$), and three “impractical” ($>12%$). We recommend prioritizing follow-up campaigns on the 11 “excellent” and “good” systems, which have the potential to deliver high-precision, independent constraints on $H_0$ to help resolve the Hubble-Lema^{i}tre tension.