Flow-Based Likelihoods for Non-Gaussian Inference. (arXiv:2007.05535v1 [astro-ph.CO])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Rivero_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Ana Diaz Rivero</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Dvorkin_C/0/1/0/all/0/1">Cora Dvorkin</a>
We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption
made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data
is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of
flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex
distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of
nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the
accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data,
and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained
model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned.
We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a
precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then
apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological
observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL
captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other
commonly-used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and
independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that
have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such
as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter
constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels
of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional
data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the
data. Unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at
tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and
consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we
encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for
training.
We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption
made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data
is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of
flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex
distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of
nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the
accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data,
and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained
model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned.
We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a
precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then
apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological
observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL
captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other
commonly-used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and
independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that
have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such
as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter
constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels
of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional
data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the
data. Unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at
tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and
consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we
encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for
training.
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