Energetic Ceilings and Benchmarks of Astrophysical Gravitational-Wave Backgrounds

Energetic Ceilings and Benchmarks of Astrophysical Gravitational-Wave Backgrounds
Chiara M. F. Mingarelli
arXiv:2601.18859v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Every astrophysical gravitational-wave background (GWB) is limited by the rest mass its sources can convert into gravitational radiation. We combine available source mass, merger factor, radiative efficiency, and merger epochs for six populations: supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs), IMBHs inspiralling into SMBHs, stellar mass binary black holes (sBBHs), binary neutron stars (BNSs), and Pop~III binary black holes. For each, we calculate a GWB benchmark and an upper limit. For SMBHBs, the local mass census of Liepold & Ma (2024), together with the repeated-merger boost of Sato-Polito et al. (2024), allows us to compute a ceiling on the nanoHertz GWB. Anchoring the GWB to this census, and assuming one merger per SMBH, gives a benchmark of $A_{rm bench} = 2.11^{+0.43}_{-0.32}times10^{-15}$ at $f=1,{rm yr}^{-1}$. For the ceiling, we assume an infinite number of previous mergers, yielding $A_{rm ceil}=3.76^{+0.76}_{-0.56}times10^{-15}$, consistent with published PTA amplitudes. Under this mass function and merger model, the measured GWB amplitude therefore does not require additional SMBH mass. A measured GWB can instead constrain its source population. Using the revised NANOGrav 15-yr GWB amplitude and this SMBH census gives $f_{rm merge}=1.11^{+1.35}_{-0.63}$, where 1 means one merger per present-day remnant. For the other five populations, comparable censuses do not yet exist, so we report upper limits from the best available source constraints, including compact-binary merger rates. Finally, the six adopted upper limit cases yield a present-day gravitational-wave energy budget of $rho_{rm gw}^{(6)}=3.33^{+1.32}_{-0.83}times10^{-7}rho_c$. A larger energy density would require more source mass, mergers, radiative efficiency, or later epochs, or point to additional source populations or new physics.arXiv:2601.18859v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Every astrophysical gravitational-wave background (GWB) is limited by the rest mass its sources can convert into gravitational radiation. We combine available source mass, merger factor, radiative efficiency, and merger epochs for six populations: supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs), IMBHs inspiralling into SMBHs, stellar mass binary black holes (sBBHs), binary neutron stars (BNSs), and Pop~III binary black holes. For each, we calculate a GWB benchmark and an upper limit. For SMBHBs, the local mass census of Liepold & Ma (2024), together with the repeated-merger boost of Sato-Polito et al. (2024), allows us to compute a ceiling on the nanoHertz GWB. Anchoring the GWB to this census, and assuming one merger per SMBH, gives a benchmark of $A_{rm bench} = 2.11^{+0.43}_{-0.32}times10^{-15}$ at $f=1,{rm yr}^{-1}$. For the ceiling, we assume an infinite number of previous mergers, yielding $A_{rm ceil}=3.76^{+0.76}_{-0.56}times10^{-15}$, consistent with published PTA amplitudes. Under this mass function and merger model, the measured GWB amplitude therefore does not require additional SMBH mass. A measured GWB can instead constrain its source population. Using the revised NANOGrav 15-yr GWB amplitude and this SMBH census gives $f_{rm merge}=1.11^{+1.35}_{-0.63}$, where 1 means one merger per present-day remnant. For the other five populations, comparable censuses do not yet exist, so we report upper limits from the best available source constraints, including compact-binary merger rates. Finally, the six adopted upper limit cases yield a present-day gravitational-wave energy budget of $rho_{rm gw}^{(6)}=3.33^{+1.32}_{-0.83}times10^{-7}rho_c$. A larger energy density would require more source mass, mergers, radiative efficiency, or later epochs, or point to additional source populations or new physics.