Empirical Model of 10-130 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Spectra at 1 AU Based on Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Direction. (arXiv:2101.04234v2 [astro-ph.SR] UPDATED)
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Bruno_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Alessandro Bruno</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Richardson_I/0/1/0/all/0/1">Ian G. Richardson</a>
We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP)
event-integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU,
based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial
RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites (GOES) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and
Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data
sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a
statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of
MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial
distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an
energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the
correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass
ejection (CME), and the magnetic field line connection angle. The CME
measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications,
Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its
extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the
spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the
simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak
intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show
remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.
We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP)
event-integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU,
based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial
RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites (GOES) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and
Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data
sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a
statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of
MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial
distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an
energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the
correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass
ejection (CME), and the magnetic field line connection angle. The CME
measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications,
Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its
extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the
spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the
simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak
intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show
remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.
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