Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) IV: Analyzing CO2 Detections in the Near-IR to Determine the Long-Wavelength Cut-off for the Habitable Worlds Observatory Coronagraph
Celeste Hagee, Natasha Latouf, Avi M. Mandell, Michael D. Himes, Michael Dane Moore, Geronimo L. Villanueva
arXiv:2602.12353v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present our analysis of how the detectability of carbon dioxide (CO2) on an Earth-like planet varies with respect to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), wavelength, and molecular abundance. Using the Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) methodology, we can inform the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) coronagraph. We test 25 evenly-spaced 20% bandpasses between 0.8-2.0{mu}m, and simulate data spanning a range of SNRs and molecular abundance to analyze the relationship between wavelength and detectability for different planetary archetypes. We examine abundance levels from varying Earth epochs and a Venus-like archetype to investigate how detectability would change throughout the evolution of a rocky planet. Here, we present our results on the planetary conditions and technological requirements to strongly detect CO2. In addition, we analyze the degeneracy of CO2 with carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), and water (H2O). We determine that any abundance of CO does not achieve strong detections and that CH4 and H2O play a pivotal role in the ability to detect CO2. We conclude that the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the Habitable Worlds Observatory coronagraph should be 1.68{mu}m.arXiv:2602.12353v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present our analysis of how the detectability of carbon dioxide (CO2) on an Earth-like planet varies with respect to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), wavelength, and molecular abundance. Using the Bayesian Analysis for Remote Biosignature Identification on exoEarths (BARBIE) methodology, we can inform the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) coronagraph. We test 25 evenly-spaced 20% bandpasses between 0.8-2.0{mu}m, and simulate data spanning a range of SNRs and molecular abundance to analyze the relationship between wavelength and detectability for different planetary archetypes. We examine abundance levels from varying Earth epochs and a Venus-like archetype to investigate how detectability would change throughout the evolution of a rocky planet. Here, we present our results on the planetary conditions and technological requirements to strongly detect CO2. In addition, we analyze the degeneracy of CO2 with carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), and water (H2O). We determine that any abundance of CO does not achieve strong detections and that CH4 and H2O play a pivotal role in the ability to detect CO2. We conclude that the optimal long-wavelength cut-off for the Habitable Worlds Observatory coronagraph should be 1.68{mu}m.