Assessing gravitational-wave binary black hole candidates with Bayesian odds. (arXiv:2008.00509v1 [gr-qc])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/gr-qc/1/au:+Pratten_G/0/1/0/all/0/1">Geraint Pratten</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/gr-qc/1/au:+Vecchio_A/0/1/0/all/0/1">Alberto Vecchio</a>
Gravitational waves from the coalescence of binary black holes can be
distinguished from noise transients in a detector network through Bayesian
model selection by exploiting the coherence of the signal across the network.
We present a Bayesian framework for calculating the posterior probability that
a signal is of astrophysical origin, agnostic to the specific search strategy,
pipeline or search domain with which a candidate is identified. We apply this
framework under textit{identical} assumptions to all events reported in the
LIGO-Virgo GWTC-1 catalog, GW190412 and numerous event candidates reported by
independent search pipelines by other authors. With the exception of GW170818,
we find that all GWTC-1 candidates, and GW190412, have odds overwhelmingly in
favour of the astrophysical hypothesis, including GW170729, which was assigned
significantly different astrophysical probabilities by the different search
pipelines used in GWTC-1. GW170818 is de-facto a single detector trigger, and
is therefore of no surprise that it is disfavoured as being produced by an
astrophysical source in our framework. We find textit{three} additional event
candidates, GW170121, GW170425 and GW170727, that have significant support for
the astrophysical hypothesis, with a probability that the signal is of
astrophysical origin of 0.53, 0.74 and 0.64 respectively. We carry out a
hierarchical population study which includes these three events in addition to
those reported in GWTC-1, finding that the main astrophysical results are
unaffected.
Gravitational waves from the coalescence of binary black holes can be
distinguished from noise transients in a detector network through Bayesian
model selection by exploiting the coherence of the signal across the network.
We present a Bayesian framework for calculating the posterior probability that
a signal is of astrophysical origin, agnostic to the specific search strategy,
pipeline or search domain with which a candidate is identified. We apply this
framework under textit{identical} assumptions to all events reported in the
LIGO-Virgo GWTC-1 catalog, GW190412 and numerous event candidates reported by
independent search pipelines by other authors. With the exception of GW170818,
we find that all GWTC-1 candidates, and GW190412, have odds overwhelmingly in
favour of the astrophysical hypothesis, including GW170729, which was assigned
significantly different astrophysical probabilities by the different search
pipelines used in GWTC-1. GW170818 is de-facto a single detector trigger, and
is therefore of no surprise that it is disfavoured as being produced by an
astrophysical source in our framework. We find textit{three} additional event
candidates, GW170121, GW170425 and GW170727, that have significant support for
the astrophysical hypothesis, with a probability that the signal is of
astrophysical origin of 0.53, 0.74 and 0.64 respectively. We carry out a
hierarchical population study which includes these three events in addition to
those reported in GWTC-1, finding that the main astrophysical results are
unaffected.
http://arxiv.org/icons/sfx.gif
