A New Space Weather Tool for Identifying Eruptive Active Regions. (arXiv:1910.04226v1 [astro-ph.SR])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Pagano_P/0/1/0/all/0/1">P. Pagano</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Mackay_D/0/1/0/all/0/1">D. H. Mackay</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/astro-ph/1/au:+Yardley_S/0/1/0/all/0/1">S. L. Yardley</a>
One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of
eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space
Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement. Our
aim is to produce a relatively simple technique that can provide real time
indications or predictions that an active region will produce an eruption. We
expand on the theoretical work of citet{Pagano2019fp} that was able to
distinguish eruptive from non-eruptive active regions. From this we introduce a
new operational metric that uses a combination of observed line-of-sight
magnetograms, 3D data-driven simulations and the projection of the 3D
simulations forward in time. Results show that the new metric correctly
distinguishes active regions as eruptive when observable signatures of eruption
have been identified and as non-eruptive when there are no observable
signatures of eruption. After successfully distinguishing eruptive from
non-eruptive active regions we illustrate how this metric may be used in a
“real-time” operational sense were three levels of warning are categorised.
These categories are: high risk (red), medium risk (amber) and low risk (green)
of eruption. Through considering individual cases we find that the separation
into eruptive and non-eruptive active regions is more robust the longer the
time series of observed magnetograms used to simulate the build up of magnetic
stress and free magnetic energy within the active region. Finally, we conclude
that this proof of concept study delivers promising results where the ability
to categorise the risk of an eruption is a major achievement.
One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of
eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space
Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement. Our
aim is to produce a relatively simple technique that can provide real time
indications or predictions that an active region will produce an eruption. We
expand on the theoretical work of citet{Pagano2019fp} that was able to
distinguish eruptive from non-eruptive active regions. From this we introduce a
new operational metric that uses a combination of observed line-of-sight
magnetograms, 3D data-driven simulations and the projection of the 3D
simulations forward in time. Results show that the new metric correctly
distinguishes active regions as eruptive when observable signatures of eruption
have been identified and as non-eruptive when there are no observable
signatures of eruption. After successfully distinguishing eruptive from
non-eruptive active regions we illustrate how this metric may be used in a
“real-time” operational sense were three levels of warning are categorised.
These categories are: high risk (red), medium risk (amber) and low risk (green)
of eruption. Through considering individual cases we find that the separation
into eruptive and non-eruptive active regions is more robust the longer the
time series of observed magnetograms used to simulate the build up of magnetic
stress and free magnetic energy within the active region. Finally, we conclude
that this proof of concept study delivers promising results where the ability
to categorise the risk of an eruption is a major achievement.
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