Temporal changes of near-surface air temperature in Poland for 1781-2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881-2016. (arXiv:2105.06389v1 [physics.ao-ph])
<a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Modzelewska_R/0/1/0/all/0/1">R. Modzelewska</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Alania_M/0/1/0/all/0/1">M. V. Alania</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Kapanadze_N/0/1/0/all/0/1">N. I. Kapanadze</a>, <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/physics/1/au:+Khelaia_E/0/1/0/all/0/1">E. I. Khelaia</a>

Analyses of near-surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781-2016 and in
Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881-2016 have been carried out. We show that the
centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same
peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect deltaT = (1.08+/-0.29) C is
observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881-2016. A warming effect is larger in
winter season (deltaT = ~1.15 C) than in other seasons (average warming effect
for these seasons deltaT = ~0.95 C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly
related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot numbers (SSN) and
total solar irradiance (TSI)); particularly, a time interval about ~70 years
(1890-1960), when a correlation coefficients between 11 years smoothed SSN and
T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66+/-0.07 and r = 0.73+/-0.07 for Poland and r
= 0.82+/-0.05 and r = 0.90+/-0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period
solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a
global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for
period 1781-1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881-2016.
We recognize a few feeble ~20+/-3 years disturbances in the temperature changes
for period 1885-1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar
magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7-8 years in Poland’s T
data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Analyses of near-surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781-2016 and in
Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881-2016 have been carried out. We show that the
centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same
peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect deltaT = (1.08+/-0.29) C is
observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881-2016. A warming effect is larger in
winter season (deltaT = ~1.15 C) than in other seasons (average warming effect
for these seasons deltaT = ~0.95 C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly
related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot numbers (SSN) and
total solar irradiance (TSI)); particularly, a time interval about ~70 years
(1890-1960), when a correlation coefficients between 11 years smoothed SSN and
T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66+/-0.07 and r = 0.73+/-0.07 for Poland and r
= 0.82+/-0.05 and r = 0.90+/-0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period
solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a
global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for
period 1781-1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881-2016.
We recognize a few feeble ~20+/-3 years disturbances in the temperature changes
for period 1885-1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar
magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7-8 years in Poland’s T
data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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